Divisional Games

I didn't get to see the game last night, but i heard it was a good one. I started this post before the game because I've been disappointed about the Oilers ability to play teams in their own division. We play these teams 32 times, and if you can play 4 teams well all season you get rewarded with a lot of wins (assuming hockey gods are fair). Clearly we are not doing this. I compiled a list of how the players have done against their division and outside the division. These are purely raw numbers from the NHL site and do not account for empty net goals and stuff like that. Its just meant to be a brief overview.

Stats should be up to date (click for larger view). What do we see? Penner and Gagner are surprisingly more effective against divisional opponents, with Gagner's only two goals coming against Calgary and Penner being the only plus player. Horcoff has been very consistent in either category, he's having a great year so far. On the other end Hemsky has not been able to do what Horcoff has: play against our division. His numbers drop against the Calgary's and Colorado's etc..I consider these to be tougher games to play, our division is one of the best in the league (aside this team) and teams usually play division opponents a lot tougher. If Hemsky is going to be our best player, he needs to be our best player against every team. Using Ryan Getzlaf as a comparable (who just got slightly more money than Hemsky did, and is 2 years younger) we can look at his offensive stats. In 9 games outside his division, he has 9 points, and in the 10 games against divisional opponents he as 12 points, clearly producing across the board. His division includes the Sharks, Kings, Coyotes, and Stars. The Kings and Coyotes being the lesser two but are only a combined 5 games under .500. Cogliano is just impressive. Good numbers and they are almost identical in either category.

Another thing that stands out is our checkers. Guys like Sanderson, Reasoner and Brodziak have been getting killed in the +/- area (a combined -20). This could be the teams greatest weakness, a lack of an effective checking line. Our team is unable to stop the other teams best players, and its showing. Sanderson has never been known as a strong 2-way player, Reasoner is more of a 4th liner, and Brodziak is a rookie. Our division is beating us like a rented mule with a bad leg because players like the Sedin Sisters dominating us in the offensive zone.

Oh and our record against the NorthWest? 4-8-1. Against the rest? 4-4-0. Bones and Assholes can't heal fast enough.

An interesting note, Stortini is a minus player in exactly one game. Limited minutes but interesting nonetheless.

Oilogosphere

An interesting article in the Journal today on the Oilogosphere. Good read for those interested in getting to know the various bloggers in the "sphere".

Enjoy.

Sour Milk

I was reading the sun a few days back and there was an article about how the Oilers made a big mistake trading for Roloson instead of Biron back in '06 (remember?). Thats a difficult statement to make, first of all your assuming that the Biron trade was there to be made which could likely not be true due to the Sabres wanting two goalies for a cup run. Secondly your assuming that what we give up for Biron won't be more than draft picks. Thirdly, if we did have a different goalie or gave up more than draft picks would this team have still gone to the finals? Honestly I don't change a thing in case I never get to live the experience of that run. Roloson wasn't what carried this team to the cup (See: Pronger) and Jussi played well in his absence, but I have to say that he did a great job and I'm glad he was on this team.

Now in the "what have you done for me lately" category, the 07-08 Oiler goaltending issues. The Oilers have not received the caliber of goaltending they have been expecting, from either Roloson or Garon, and the third worst team GAA of 3.38 (behind T.O. and ATL) at least implies it could be better. But Roloson is 38 and Garon is not a future starter in this league (contrary to some preseason speculation). So what is the future for the Oilers goaltending? We have two legitimate prospects in Jeff-Drouin Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk with Glenn Fisher and Bryan Pitton a distant (and unlikely) reality. Heres a look at what JDD and Dubnyk have done in the past two years of pro:

JDD: 07-08 5-2-2 2.41 GAA .920% in 10 gp
06-07 22-12-3 2.47 GAA .908% in 40 gp

DD: 07-08 1-3-0 3.18 GAA .914% in 5 gp
06-07 2-1-0 2.94 GAA .855% in 4 gp (AHL)
24-11-7 2.56 GAA .921% in 43 gp (ECHL)

At first there are some positive things to take out of these stats. Dubnyk had an excellent 06-07 season, even being an allstar in his league. JDD has put up decent GAA in the AHL over the last two years, and is have a good season so far this year (though limited action). There are also some negatives to take out of it. JDD's SV% last year was 21st in the AHL, and if your looking at your future starter that is clearly not good enough, especially on the WBS Penguins who were a good playoff team. As for Dubnyk, how many goalies do you know starting in the NHL the last few years that have ever played in the ECHL? I'd actually be interested to know, but i bet you i can count with half a hand. Lets compare them to their draft class.

JDD was drafted in 2002, so lets look at the goalies drafted that year in the first two rounds along with any others that have NHL experience.

Of the three goalies taken in the first, two are starters and Toivonen has had an up and down career, but spent some time as Boston's starter before ending up in St. Louis behind Legace this year. In the second, Harding had a spectacular AHL career and is now an NHL backup being considered for the future starting role. Leneveu has been an average AHL starter and not succeeded in the NHL but he does play for Phoenix. Stephen and Daigneault have had similar progression to JDD and then Norrena was a decent NHL starter last season (2.78 .904 in 55gp for Columbus) only to lose his job this year to one of the hottest goalies in the NHL.

Clearly if JDD is going to become a candidate for a NHL starting role his should have shown greater progression by now. This is his fourth pro season and no one has him penciled in for NHL duties. As for Dubnyk, there is less expectation of him playing NHL games (being 2 years younger than JDD), and it may be too soon to lay judgment on him but lets look at how the goalies drafted in the first round of 2004 have done for themselves.

6. Al Montoya - up and down pro career in his first season (played 2 ECHL games). Good year last year as AHL starter.
14. Devan Dubnyk - first year pro in the ECHL was all star and played well. Got shelled in his 4 AHL games that year. Playing average this year. I suspect next year will be his defining year.
17. Marek Schwarz - This is the man that brings a lot of the debate, he was rated higher than Dubnyk and many believed was the better goalie. Been a decent AHL goalie (good GAA not good Sv%) and got into 2 NHL games last year.
26. Cory Schneider - college player playing his first year of pro, bad in the 5 AHL games he's played.

From my opinion Dubnyk is 3rd on this list. Both Montoya and Schwarz have established more at a higher level then Dubnyk; whom we have yet to discover if he can play at an AHL level. Based on the progression of some great young goalies (Ward, Harding, even Toivonen) we can't expect Dubnyk to become an NHL starter. These goalies went from junior to the AHL and had immediate success at this level. Dubnyk has not played very many games but has not won the starting job either, especially from goalies like Deslauriers who have not been stellar.

As it is now I don't see a goalie in our system who will have the ability to take over after Roloson retires and the Garon experiment fails. This team has spent valuable picks on goalies in 02 and 04 without success. We've reached our hand into the goalie fridge and not gotten what we wanted.

What else is on TV tonight?

So I skip the rest of class to get home to see the third, and its already 5-2 Wild. I would trade a healthy Pitkanen for Smith straight up. Straight fucking up.

Chest Pain

Two heart breakers in a row, tough time to be an Oiler fan. Few things about the game tonight that caught my attention. I once believed Grebeshkov could be a player in this league, that ended tonight. Early in the first its a 2 on 2 rush for the Preds and Grebs takes Gilberts guy, leaving his guy wide open for a nice shot that Grebs recovers barely by laying his stick on the ice to tip it. Then we can talk about the two goals he was on the ice for. Has talent but seriously lacks hockey sense. The experiment of him and Gilbert as our answer to the other teams best line needs to stop. Very good post at IOF that backs up the idea Grebeshkov doesn't belong. If anything makes for a good read for us stats junkies. I liked the game Gilbert brought tonight, and if he wasn't babysitting the Russian Pylon he'd have been better than -2 tonight. MacT's post game comments? "If you can't score you can't get scored against. Especially if your trying to make a living in the NHL". Souray can't come back soon enough.

TOI for the Oilers D tonight:
Gilbert - 27:05
Grebeshkov - 25:40
Staios - 25:00
Smid - 19:23
Tarnstrom - 18:41

I don't understand MacTavish's hate on for Tarnstrom; plays a solid game (as he has most games) yet can't be a consistent starter and ends up with the least amount of ice time on a night when Grebeshkov clearly struggled. Are we playing the rookies hoping to turn them into players next year or the year after? or are we trying to be competitive and at least give the fans something to cheer for? Better question: Does MacTavish even know? is Lowe on the same page cause he's signing guys to win now (Penner, Souray).

Team toughness is an issue for this team. We have more skill then they do but got pushed around, specifically our defenceman. This is only proven by out injury parade on the back end. Our D is getting pushed around and our forwards weren't hitting anything. Losing Roy contributed but we need to be better in this area. We had the goaltending and we had offensive pressure was decent, we just fell apart defensively for a couple minutes. Also the kids weren't a factor tonight aside from a good rush from Cogs and some crease crashing by Gagner.

This team is not a playoff contender and if we are trying to turn the rookies into future players who contribute to wins, games like tonight will be as regular as a Raisin Bran diet.

I'm starting a campaign:

Vote for '08

How did this Happen?

To steal a line from Lowetide “This is Pierre McGuire.”

It came to my attention earlier today that Mr. McGuire was nominated and won an award for the Best Game Analyst from the Gemini Awards, which “recognize the best of Canadian Television”.

Now you have to be freaking kidding me. McGuire actually won this award? In my mind he should not even have been nominated. Or if he was nominated should have lost to guys like Bob Mackenzie or Kelly Hrudey (both of which actually were not even nominated).

Here are the top three things that I hate about Pierre McGuire’s broadcasting:

1. Grandstanding of minute plays

When I listen to Pierre McGuire on the NHL on TSN I think to myself, does this guy actually know what is going on? During games he will grandstand minute plays and make them the key to why a player is successful. For example a player is in a scrum along the boards and kicks the puck to a teammate. That team mate then undresses a defenseman; make a complete mockery of the goaltender and scores. McGuire will build that simple little kick pass to be the play of the year.

2. Continual ranting about certain aspects

Pierre will see something happen in a game and continually complain about it. For example one player is hitting with his elbow a little high, but he will continually point this out time after time. It gets a little repetitive because as a hockey fan I can plainly see that too, I do not need to be reminded of it time and time again in an annoying fashion. Show a replay of a move, do not show me clip after clip of how you are right and a player hits leading with his elbow.

3. McGuire’s "monster"
   

I like the idea behind this in rewarding a player for individual effort in a team game. But seriously some of the guys that he picks are mind boggling. There are some games that you could have a player have 2 goals and played lights out and McGuire will give the monster to a plugger that made the inconsequential kick pass mentioned in #1 (Buffalo vs. Ottawa Feb 7, 2006)

Sure he was a coach (with a great record of 23-37-7), but that obviously does not make him a great hockey analyst. You become a good hockey analyst by looking at all the sides to the game. Not grandstanding plays, continually ranting about such and such play, or making people out to be “monsters.” All I can hope is that next year a real analyst like Mckenzie or Hrudey gets the nod. But, then again maybe I am just biased towards Mr. MrGuire.

Early Attendance Figures

I have been hearing a lot of concern on the Team 1260 over the attendance records of some NHL teams this year. So I thought that I would take a look at the attendance through the league and found some interesting things. But, before we get to the points here is the break down ranked according to average attendance. (Note: I did not calculate the percentage of Los Angles or Anaheim because of the games played in London)

Rank	Team	Games	Total	Average	Percentage
1	Montreal	1	21,273	21,273	100.0
2	Philadelphia	1	19,714	19,714	100.1
3	Toronto	5	96,913	19,382	103.1
4	Calgary	2	38,578	19,289	112.4
5	St. Louis	2	38,300	19,150	91.2
6	Tampa Bay	3	57,214	19,071	96.5
7	Ottawa	4	75,721	18,930	102.3
8	Buffalo	3	56,070	18,690	100.0
9	Vancouver	3	55,890	18,630	101.1
10	Minnesota	3	55,704	18,568	102.8
11	Carolina	2	36,496	18,248	97.4
12	New York Rangers	3	54,600	18,200	100.0
13	San Jose	1	17,496	17,496	100.0
14	Los Angeles	4	69,948	17,487	-
15	Anaheim	2	34,585	17,292	-
16	Dallas	3	51,793	17,264	93.2
17	Detroit	4	68,848	17,212	85.8
18	Pittsburgh	2	34,138	17,069	100.7
19	Edmonton	3	50,517	16,839	100.0
20	Washington	1	16,741	16,741	89.7
21	Colorado	3	49,516	16,505	91.7
22	New York Islanders	3	47,763	15,921	97.7
23	Atlanta	3	47,064	15,688	84.6
24	Florida	3	45,898	15,299	79.5
25	Columbus	2	29,796	14,898	82.1
26	Phoenix	3	43,974	14,658	83.8
27	Nashville	4	54,749	13,687	80.0
28	Chicago	3	40,758	13,586	66.3
29	Boston	0	0	0	0
29	New Jersey	0	0	0	0

Being a couple games into the season I thought that I would do a preliminary report of the home attendance record of the teams in the NHL. Let’s look at a few key points from the chart that I have complied thanks to ESPN and Sportsnet:

1. The Oilers are off to a great start and really I expect them to sell out each of their home games this year. However, it really shows that we might need a new building because we are selling Rexall out and still are ranked 19^th in the league. Too bad none of the mayoral candidates want the new arena

2. A couple teams have surprisingly low attendance currently.

1. Detroit being one of them. I guess hockey is struggling in hockey town. Most sports writers chalk this up to a declining economy, however, when you look that the Michigan State Wolverines sell an average of 110124 tickets at an average of 58 dollars. That means there is more than enough money to go around. I think the real reason is fans are sick of losing in the first round and that the lockout really hurt hockey in established markets in the United States. All you have to do is look to the attendance before the lockout and Detroit was #2 right behind Montreal.

2. Colorado being another. At one point Colorado had a near 11 year and 487 game sell out streak. Now this year they are only selling 91.7% of their tickets. Again I would say this is due to the lockout and fans waning interest in the United States towards the NHL.

3. That three of the top four teams in the league attendancewise are Canadian teams. As well as, Canadian teams have sold out each home game and that half of the teams with a 100% attendance rate are Canadian teams.

4. I would have to assume that some of the American team’s attendance figures will start to drop soon as the home opener seems to draw better than the later games. However, that could work the opposite way if a team is in a playoff race.

5. Had the Balsillie sale of the Nashville Predators gone through we would have a 7^th Canadian team next year as there attendance is below 14,000 and I do not see how it will ever get above that mark.

With those points being raised I would not be disappointed to see a team located to Canada, where it seems a sure thing it would do well. I just hope that the NHL soon realizes that its bread and butter is Canada and stops attempting the relocated to places that are almost certain to fail. Just look, 5 of the bottom 6 teams to have played a home game are from the “recent” expansions or relocations.