Oiler UFA and RFAs

Part 1 – Introductions and Allan Rourke

With the Oilers signing Grebeshkov, Nilsson, and Gilbert early this “off-season” the question comes back what should they do with the other UFAs and RFAs. Now I know that the Oilers have many other RFA contracts (ex. Troy Bodie) but, I will limit these entry to players that have played at least 15 games with the big club.

Introductions:

The UFAs

Player	07/08 team	07/08 compensation	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM
Geoff Sanderson	Edmonton	1,500,000	41	3	10	13	-7	16
Marty Reasoner	Edmonton	950,000	82	11	14	25	-17	50
Curtis Glencross	Columbus	522,500	36	6	6	12	+8	25
	Edmonton		26	9	4	13		28
Allan Rourke	Edmonton	475,000	13	0	0	0	-1	5
	Springfield		44	3	11	14	-6	24

The RFAs

Player	07/08 team	07/08 compensation	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM
Joni Pitkanen	Edmonton	2,400,000	63	8	18	26	-5	56
Jarret Stoll	Edmonton	2,200,000	81	14	22	36	-23	74
Marc Pouliot	Edmonton	942,000	24	1	6	7	-1	18
	Springfield		55	21	26	47	-11	47
JF Jacques	Edmonton	650,000	9	0	0	0	-3	2
	Springfield		38	11	14	25	-13	63
Danny Syvret	Springfield	567,000	36	1	7	8	0	14
	Hershey		27	1	11	12	-4	29
Zach Stortini	Edmonton	475,000	66	3	9	12	3	201
	Springfield		4	3	2	5	0	21

Now that the introductions are out of the way let’s get down to what the Oilers should do with said players:

UFAs

I will start with Allan Rourke as out of the UFAs he earned the least, so if nothing else he will win at being the first player talked about in this blog.

Originally brought to the club as part of the deal that also brought back the Oilers 3^rd round selection in 2008 (later parlayed into Dustin Penner) for a 2^nd round pick in 2008. Rourke filled the role of utility defensemen when Souray, Tarnstrom, and Greene went down to various injuries from Nov. 10 – Dec. 10. During his time with the big club Rourke suited up for 13 games (the team went 6-6-1), playing an average of 10:55 per game. Which means that he played the equivalent of roughly 2 whole games while the team was playing .500 hockey. However he was dependable enough that he was only -1 during the time.

Now what should the Oilers do? Well with Grebeshkov, Gilbert, Staios, Greene, Souray, Smid already signed and Pitkanen a pending RFA and other prospects knocking on the door, Rourke would be pretty low on the depth chart. Relegating him to Springfield for the length of his new contract barring another rash of injuries. However, I would like to see the Oilers re-sign him as he is the ideal 8^th defensemen reliable and cheap. As well, if nothing else he could enhance the Falcons lineup for the 08-09 season by adding a guy who has been a career AHL player.

Coming Up: Part 2 Glencross – Sanderson

The Crescendo

Its been a rough spring to be a Oilers fan trying to speculate on what moves will be made for next year. By most accounts its looking like we will see the same team next year as we did this year. This does not, however, prevent the rest of the teams from making some interesting moves during the summer. Ottawa and Buffalo stand out as two teams clearly not happy with how their seasons went and may be looking to make a shakeup. Putting trades aside free agency provides some interesting opportunities.

The UFA market is lacking in real block buster talent. You have Hossa who may or may not stay with the Pens but then you have guys like Brian Campbell, Mats Sundin, and Joe Sakic who likely won't be going anywhere (Sundin/Sakic for obvious reasons, Campbell because the Sharks need him too much). As well the Goaltending market is relatively stable (as pointed out by Mirtle) so you won't get a lot of action there, though Emerygate 2008 should provide some interesting dramatics or at least if anything average T.V.

That leaves us with a very interesting crop of R.F.A.'s to be had for an expensive contract and your best draft picks. Names like Bouwmeester, Carter, Green, Weber, Bouchard, Svatos, and yes our dearest Pitkanen fill an impressive list. The supply and demand along with a growing cap tell us that something has to happen. This year could provide with quite a few offer sheets being tendered by teams looking for a quicker rebuild.

Last summer saw the Oilers sign two players to offer sheets, a duty that has made Kevin Lowe the Lex Luthor of the NHL. So now that he has started punching babies and kicking dogs the other 29 GM's can follow suit with much less risk of villainy. The history of offer sheets shows us that it has been around for awhile and if anything Lowe just took it to the next level. A brief history since 1997:

• Dustin Penner - 2007 - signed to a 5 year, $21.5 million contract from Edmonton
• Accepted and Anaheim received 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008

• Thomas Vanek - 2007 - signed to a 7 year, $50 million contract from Edmonton
• Buffalo Matched

• Ryan Kesler - 2006 - signed a 1 year, $1.9 million contract from Philidelphia
• Vancouver Matched

• Sergei Fedorov - 1998 - signed a 6 year, $38 million from Carolina
• Detroit Matched

• Mattias Ohlund - 1997 - signed a 5 year, $10 million contract & $7.5 million signing bonus from Toronto
• Vancouver Matched

• Chris Gratton - 1997 - signed a 5 year, $16.5 million contract from Tampa Bay
• Accepted and Philidelphia got four 1st round picks, traded back to the Flyers for Mikael Renberg and Karl Dykhuis with Flyers picking up part of Renberg's salary

• Joe Sakic - 1997 - signed a 3 year, $21 million contract from New York
• Colorado Matched

This list is going to grow this summer and I have a feeling teams won't be as willing to match. With a Cap system now there are a few teams who put themselves in prime position to be poached. Remember when New Jersey was having cap problems and snuck out the back door with the Mogiliny deal? They are a prime example of a team that had an RFA (Parise) that could have been had for a slight over pay. More and more GM's are going to be using offer sheets and Brian Burke may be the last man standing in the past.

Stoll Long?

Ok I know the title sounds like it came from the Edmonton Sun but hey, I'm allowed a cheezy pun once in a while. That title is probably as bad as Jarret Stoll's season, so its kind of fitting. The man is not the player he was in 05-06 and his play is showing it. Half way through last season he got his puzzle box scrambled and couldn't put the pieces back together. I'm not sure if the concussion problems are to blame but Stoll is not producing. I'll read you his line:

71 gp 11-20-31 EV -22

I don't even know where to start with this guy. His -22 is a team worst, 5 points more (or less?) than the next worst (Reasoner & Gagner). He has only contributed 31 pts offensively, 20 of which have come on the PP. He only has 2 goals in over 800 even strength minutes. That EV point production is Marty Reasoner bad (like actually, i did the math). His shooting % is 6.5 for a guy known for his shot.

There are things Stoll brings to a game. He has won 55% of his draws in each of the past 3 seasons. He has a big right handed shot on the PP which is where all his production comes from. MacTavish has propped him up on power play ice time as he has the most on the team but his production has not earned it. Top 5 PPP/60 on the Oilers:

Hemsky - 5.93
Penner - 4.43
Horcoff - 4.36
Stoll - 4.23
Gagner - 4.19

His numbers are not terrible but they are not great either. For the amount of quality time he gets on the powerplay he should be producing at a higher level. I wonder what is the role Stoll has on this team going forward into next year. He will provide a point shot on the PP, large penalty kill minutes, and absolutely nothing EV wise. So where does that fit into our lineup? I'll take a shot at next season's opening lineup for forwards:

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
Moreau- ? -Pisani
Glencross-Brodziak-Stortini

Now clearly this won't likely happen. The 'kid line' may not be able to stay together and I'm assuming Glencross resigns as a UFA. Otherwise these players are all here to stay in some capacitiy (barring trade) so for now I'm going with this. I understand we have to squeeze Torres in there somewhere and I think that just means we wait for Moreau to get injured and he takes that spot. No seriously. Maybe he takes Cogliano's spot and we move Cogs into the 3c spot but I just don't like the idea of stifling Cog's offensive development at such a young age.

To me it looks like Stoll is in line for that 3c spot. Its difficult to put Stoll on a checking line as he clearly lacks skill in that department. But assuming he improves on this I still think there are better options. You do lose his shot on the PP but with Souray returning the loss is minimized. Then there is the issue of salary. Stoll made 2.2 mil this season and I doubt will be taking much of a pay cut. I'm not entirely sure if he requires the 5% raise some players do but I'm sure your spending at least 2 mil to resign him.

Options from within w/ 07-08 salary:

Marc Pouliot (942k) - at some point he needs to establish himself as an NHL player. The offensive first-rounder he was touted as is long gone but if he can find a solid 2 way game and learn to compete this could be his spot. Surrounded by Moreau and Pisani on the wings there is a lot of room to go with the great support. He is an RFA this summer that could be had for less than 1 mil.
Ryan O'Marra (1.2mil) - Former first round pick has struggled this year. Started out in the ECHL and then moved up to the AHL. He hasn't really provided much offence this season but has been improving as the season grows longer. You have to include a guy of O'Marra's background in this discussion. He does have an expensive entry level contract because of his draft status. But the organization has plans for him to play in this exact role ala Mike Peca so his time could be now.

UFA Options w/ 07-08 salary:

Yanic Perrault (1.5 mil) - The perennial face off leader could provide some leadership in the young locker room as well as some defensive play. Does not provide much regarding offence.
Mike Peca (1.315) - On the down slide of his career he still has value. Provides a good amount of offence and can shut down opposing centers well. Not sure what his relationship is to this team after his last term here but I did read a quote where he complimented MacTavish for being intelligent.

There are many others cheaper than Stoll like Curtis Brown, Shean Donovan, Stephane Yelle, etc...

I understand he is young and could improve but his track record has never shown him to be more than a third line player. He parlayed his cup run season to decent contract and has not covered that bet. After drafting him he was groomed as the replacement to Todd Marchant and that is exactly what he is. Its time the Oilers stopped over paying their bottom six and used the money else where. If Stoll is offered any resemblance of a contract as an RFA you make the easy and smart decision and let him walk. Otherwise its a tougher decision, and one that should be thought out.