Coyote Trouble

I learned something during a short and unwanted stay in Phoenix due to a missed connecting flight. We were talking to the shuttle driver taking us back to the airport early in the morning and were enlightened by three findings.

First, when asked “if you were going to do something in Phoenix, where on that list would you put attending a Coyotes game?” The answer was “umm probably right after dying.”

Next the driver enlightened us by saying “I think that if your state does not naturally produce ice then you should not have a hockey team.” This was followed by “I have lived in Phoenix for 4 years and for the first 3, I thought the Coyotes were a minor league baseball team.”

Now obviously I citizen does not make a city, however, if this is the general though through the city I assume the Coyotes are in deep trouble as a franchise

R.I.P.

Games the Oilers should have won...

With the Oilers ever embattled to attain the last playoff spot in the Western Conference race one only has to look back to team’s inability to win earlier in the season to find that the race does not need to be. The following in a list of games that had the Oilers pulled off would have positioned this team into a playoff spot currently instead of fighting for their lives at this point in the season.

Nov. 5, 2008

5-4 loss to the Jackets, up 4-2 with 17 minutes to play, end up falling asleep for 1 minute game tied 4-4 and give up a late one to lose the game.

Nov. 13, 2008

5-2 loss to the Maple Leafs, JDD’s first NHL loss, but still with the way that the Maple Leafs were slumping there is no excuse not to put away a terrible team

Nov. 15, 2008

3-2 Shootout loss to the Avalanche, strong game but give up the tying goal with 11 seconds left.

Dec 11, 2008

2-0 loss to the Panthers, at the time the Panthers were near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, out shoot the Panthers 41-16 but still the offensive touch is lacking like so often this year

Dec 30, 2008

3-2 loss to the Senators, the Senators came into the game on a long road losing steak only to snap it against the Oilers. Again the Oilers fail to close out a struggling hockey club.

Feb 21, 2009

3-2 shootout loss to the Flames, again the Oilers give up a late goal and lose in the shootout. Inability to close out teams evident.

As I looked at this list a couple of ideas came forward. First, the Oilers have been more consistent in the latter part of the season. Second, had the Oilers closed these games out you could add 10 points to their current total.

However, I would argue that if I am arbitrarily adding points for games the Oilers should have won then more then likely I should also be taking points away for games they should have lost so if we take only half the points the Oilers could have attained then they would have 5 extra which would place them tied for 6th with Columbus and holding a 3 point lead in the standings over the 9th place blues.

4 Million in the NHL

Dustin Penner has endured quite a bit of flak this year from both coaches and fans.

From the MacT you have beauties such as:

•"We thought the contract ($4.25 million average for five years) was a starting point for him, but he views it as a finish line. I can't watch it, certainly not for another [3 1/2 years]"

•"He has to get his game to a level where he can help us, to this point, it hasn't gotten there.”

•"He's not competitive enough or fit enough to help us, so why put him back in? He's never been fit enough to help us, we signed him to be a top-two line player and that's kind of where it ended.”

• "We're at a critical time and we can't wait for players' games to round into shape. We need guys to perform."

The first three quotes are from middle November (1,2,3) with the last coming from earlier March (4).

From the fans you hear constant criticism such as:

•“Penner making it to the arena on time was a surprise. [Fortunately], the Anaheim Fire Department was able to use the Jaws of Life to un-wedge Penner from the 'Space Mountain' roller coaster car he was stuck on.”

•“If they can send him to the minors… go for it. If someone wants to claim him off of waivers… great as it would take the $$$$ off our books. But who will want to pay $4 mill a season for someone who has [underachieved] badly this year.”

•“I think that the problem is Penner was brought on to this team to fill a role that it is unrealistic for him to fulfill.”

While this is only a short synopsis these are the basic arguments that fans make in some of the hockey discussion forums (Sportnet 1,2 and HF boards 3).

Basically the fact comes down that some fans and the coach believe Penner to be: inconsistent, out of shape, and a waste of cap space.

With that being said I thought that I would focus on the first and last issue in the previous statement by comparing the forwards throughout the league that make within the 4 million dollar range. I excluded all players that made more money then Penner due to the fact that if possible the Oilers could fit those players under the cap space currently taken up by the aforementioned Penner. So without further adieu here is the list.

Name	Team	Age	Salary	GP	G	A	P	TOI/G	P/60
D. Penner	EDM	26	4.25	72	17	19	36	15:42	1.91
M. Ryder	BOS	28	4.00	66	26	23	49	14:58	2.97
D. Roy	BUF	25	4.00	75	26	39	65	21:17	2.44
E. Cole	CAR	29	4.00	75	18	19	37	17:29	1.69
P. Sharp	CHI	26	3.90	57	25	17	42	18:08	2.44
M. Hedjuk	COL	32	3.90	75	26	29	55	20:02	2.20
J. Lehtinen	DAL	35	4.00	41	8	15	23	19:22	1.74
B. Morrow	DAL	29	4.10	18	5	10	15	21:21	2.34
N. Horton	FLA	23	4.00	61	20	22	42	17:57	2.30
M. Handzus	L.A.	31	4.00	75	17	22	39	18:59	1.64
P.M. Bouchard	MIN	24	4.08	71	16	30	46	16:58	2.29
R. Lang	MTL	37	4.00	50	18	21	39	16:52	2.77
J.P. Dumont	NSH	30	4.00	75	15	43	58	17:26	2.66
B. Gionta	NJD	29	4.00	74	18	39	57	16:57	2.73
M. Naslund	NYR	34	4.00	76	23	20	43	17:19	1.96
M. Comrie	OTT	27	4.00	55	10	16	26	15:58	1.78
M. Fisher	OTT	28	4.20	70	12	17	29	18:29	1.34
S. Hartnell	PHI	26	4.20	74	29	30	59	17:51	2.70
B. Boyes	STL	26	4.00	75	29	33	62	19:16	2.57
K. Tkachuk	STL	36	4.00	72	22	20	42	17:09	2.04
J. Blake	TOR	34	4.00	72	25	35	60	18:23	2.72
P. Demitra	VAN	33	4.00	61	18	31	49	17:36	2.73
S. Federov	WSH	38	4.00	46	8	20	28	16:29	2.21
Average		29.8		64.6	18.7	24.8	43.5	17:55	2.27

For a closer look here are Penner’s stats in comparison with only the average.

D. Penner	EDM	25	4.25	72	17	19	36	15:42	1.91
Average		29.8		64.6	18.7	24.8	43.5	17:55	2.27

Here is a few things I believe that we can glean from these stats:

First, Penner is a big body, who is roughly 4 years younger then the average, and is/has not been injury prone having only missed games this season from being benched and overall has played about 7 games more than the average of the other players making the same amount of money.

Second, looking at point production he is only 2 goals away from being above average in said department, 6 assists shy of being above average in assists and as such 8 points from above average in the points category. As well, he has done this while playing over 2 minutes less per game then the statistical average.

Thus I would have to agree with Lowetide’s column that in fact the contract Penner signed has not been a bust. Penner is currently 26 years old and in his 3rd year of NHL hockey. My final comment would be that I would much rather have Penner on my team than many of the other players on the previous list.

Playoff hopes

Well I figured, that with 7 games left in the regular season, I would crawl out of the hole that I have been living in and actually post something for the first time in roughly a year. According to www.sportsclubstats.com the Oilers currently have a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs currently. A win against minnesota tomorrow would "increase" that chance by 15% and make the playoff tickets, I have paid so much for at least, useful.

Appease the Fans!

So Tambellini decided to keep us waiting with baited breath until the very last possible moment today before making two trades. It was a relatively slow deadline day even though 22 trades were made. It was all the expected players and the only 'big name' guy to go was Jokinen. Calgary got pumped all day as the 'big players' even though they made only two trades. The Brian Burke love-in at TSN almost made me vomit. They cut off Eric Cole to go to Burke's presser, then five minutes after it was over they do a one on one interview with him and ask the same questions. All the while trades are starting to come in. Worst statement of the day? Pierre 'Monster' McGuire stating that basically the Oilers traded Pitkanen and Cole for O'sullivan. WHERE IS THE LOGIC IN THAT? On national television no less. I'll keep the rest short as we've all seen the trades.

• Very good value for Cole. The way I'm seeing it is Cole and a 5th for O'Sullivan and Kotalik. Kotalik is a UFA and O'sullivan has 2 years left at about 2.9. Cole was not resigning here so again, great value.
• I think the only team you could have traded Cole to is Carolina, its the one team that probably wouldn't treat him like a UFA as he surely signs there this summer. This is why Tambellini was able to get value for him.
• Frolov must not have been available as you HAVE to assume he was the Oilers first choice.
• Word out of Ryan Rishaug's mouth is that Kotalik is the guy to play #1 LW which goes against most fans initial thoughts. I don't understand why we gave up the 2nd for 20 games of this guy (who is a natural RW), but we shall see.

What I've briefly seen/heard on each player:

• O'sullivan: good AHL scorer with average NHL stats, 24 years old, shoots a lot (200 shots) but scores a little (14 goals). Rob Daum coached him with the Aeros in the AHL so he must have put word in on it. I take that as a good sign. He's a smallish offensive first forward, which we obviously have no shortage of on this team.
• Kotalik: Great shot, probably the second best shot on this team right now. Average player who is about a 45 point guy that can at least hold his own in both ends. I question whether he re-signs with us.

So an interesting day. They were able to protect all the young core players of this team and flip 2o games of Cole for a couple of assets, one of which likely has a long term future with this team. The one thing that scares me is this team just got smaller and softer by trading one of their most physical forwards.

All in all, well played Tambellini, well played. You'll survive at least until draft day.

Grading the Draft

Every so often, Scott Cullen at TSN comes up with a gem, and today he wrote a great article explaining the value of draft picks and just how little that value really is. He makes some interesting conclusions:

• There is not much difference between picking in the middle of the fourth round and the eighth or anywhere in between.
• First round picks are the only ones likely to make it to the NHL (though he does mention they get more opportunity, I think he undervalues this).
• The drafts in 1995 and 1998 offered the best return
  

After breezing through the article, I have come up with some of my own thoughts regarding this:

• Of the players who do turn out in the later rounds a majority appear to be defenceman. It is generally regarded that they take longer to reach potential and peak in later years which is probably a likely explanation.
• The top 5 is generally a safe bet but picking in the 20's has provided some solid results. It would be interesting to learn about scouting department's philosophies depending on the spot their picking from. I think this plays a role in why 6-10 shows a decline.
• You have to think that the 2003 draft will provide outstanding results and probably out do the 95 and 98 drafts. They have been given 14 and 11 years to yield where as the 03 draft only 6. Late blooming NHLers still have time to gain traction from the 03 draft.
• Don't draft goalies with your high picks!
  

So the article provides solid evidence that draft picks can be over valued by some, specifically outside the 2nd round. Basically the draft is a crap shoot outside the top 5 picks, and some teams spend money to improve drafting, but all your doing is improving your odds. They're still bad odds.

Pad Stacking

One of the biggest holes on this team has been a lack of consistently great goaltending. This team has lacked it probably since Joseph save for maybe a season or two of Salo and Roloson's post trade 2006 season. As for Roloson, he has had some great games and is playing well of late, but he has had some horrendous games to go along with that. What I feel you should be looking for in this position is a goaltender who keeps you in almost every game and will steal you the odd one. This team needs to end the roller coaster ride that its been suffering through for almost a decade. If you look at our track record you will see, consistently good goaltending = playoffs.

So I've tried to compile a list of possibilities that this team could look at come July (I don't see goaltending address at the deadline, we have other issues). When looking at the goaltenders out there I tried to use common sense before putting them on the list. This is why you won't see a guy like Backstrom on this list, there is no way Minnesota lets him walk and if they did it would be for astronomical dollars, which this team has already spent. Some of them are free agents (RFA and UFA) and some would have to come via trade, which I also tried to use common sense on, which is why you won't see Luongo or Brodeur on here :).

I've broken them down into two categories: sure things that you can expect to know what you'll get from them and then projects, who have shown the ability to be good but have not flourished in their current role. Each has its pros and cons, with money being a big one, and as you'll see I've tended to lean towards knowing what you're going to get.

UNKNOWNS

1. LEHTONEN, 25 (RFA) - Second overall draft pick back in 2002 has been mediocre on a bad team. The Thrashers have the 2nd worst GA/G in the league this season and were tied for last in 07/08. He has maintained a sv% over .900 since entering the league. In his four seasons as an NHL starter he's posted: .907, .916, .912, .906 from most recent to least. Lehtonen destroys AHL competition so the possibility of playing for a better defensive team may allow him to become a dominant goaltender in this league.

Money: He was a 3 mill cap hit on what I believe was a one year deal. As an RFA I wonder if it may be easier to trade for his rights then sign for Roloson money?

2. NIITTYMAKI, 28 (UFA) - A late round pick of the flyers, he has not had a great start to his career, but after some rough years he looks to have settled down. Posting career bests with a 2.59 GAA and .916 sv% he is outdoing his counterpart on the Flyers (Biron) and getting less playing time. I'm not sure what the Flyers plans are for who they intend to keep (both are UFAs) but I think NIITTYMAKI is worth a look.

Money: He was a 1.225 cap hit so his price tag should not be much, possibly as low as in the 2.0 million range.

3. KHABIBULIN, 36 (UFA) - The dominating, cup-winner that was great for Tampa has been far from since signing his big contract with Chicago. But this season with Chicago's resurgance as a dominat team Khabibulin has also recovered posting 2.37 GAA and .924 sv%, so we know he has the possibility to be a great goaltender. I do have reasons for putting him in this group. For one, who knows what his intentions are going forward and what the possibility of Edmonton being in his plans. Another is his age, he has been splitting games 50/50 with Heut and at 36 he likely only has a couple years left but at what level and for how many games?

Money: Coming off a 6.75 mill 5 year deal I doubt he is looking for a big pay cut. Your likely paying at the least 6.0 for his services.

4. LECLAIRE, 26 (2yrs/3.8mil) - The 8th overall pick in 2001 has had a hit and miss career. In 07-08 he was amazing, posting a 2.25 GAA/.919 sv% and league leading 9 shutouts only to be snubbed from Vezina voting and not even receive a single vote (11 goalies did). This season Leclaire has been out a large portion of the year with an ankle injury. He's young and not exactly proven, but if you could get similar seasons like last year out of him you'd be in the gravy. If Mason is CBJ's goalie going forward they may look to deal Leclaire to get depth and make a playoff push.

Money: he has 2 years left at a 3.8mil cap hit then UFA. Takes Roloson's money and is signed for another two years.

CONSISTENT PERFORMERS

5. GIGUERE, 31 (2yrs/6.0) - Since joining Anaheim he has elevated his career to be a great starting goalie, even winning the Conn Smythe in '03 on the losing team. Amazing numbers since the lockout, Giguere has faltered this year. He is being outplayed by his counterpart Hiller, and being out played badly. Giguere is posting a 3.09 GAA and .903 sv% in 35gp compared to Hiller's 2.20 GAA and .924 sv% in 30 gp. Hiller is a 24 year old sophmore but Anaheim may want to throw the reins to him come next season. Its a positive asset just to remove Giguere's cap hit off the books. As for Edmonton, even though Giguere is having a bad year he too good of a goalie to be bad for long and a new motivation may be what he needs.

Money: Edmonton would need to clear cap space for him, as Roloson will only be 3.667 coming off of our books.

6. FERNANDEZ, 34 (UFA) - Was a very good goalie in Minnesota (why they trade Roloson to us) and when he plays he has continued that in Boston. The problem with Fernandez has been a nagging knee injury that wiped out his entire year last year and caused him to miss ample time the year before, including the playoffs. But if you can get a healthy Fernandez you have a great starter that will provide you with consistent goaltending. He's taking about 40% of the games in Boston and isn't being outdone by their hero Thomas (GAA 2.12 / 2.15 SV% .931 / .925) so both are putting up equal stats. Age and injuries may be risky with him, but he is likely available as Boston will choose to keep the higher profile Thomas.

Money: coming off of a deal that had a 4.33 cap hit Fernandez will be looking for money in the 5.0+ range and his boxcars are likely slightly inflated playing on a dominating team like the Bruins.

There are some interesting choices this offseason and there is definately options available to the Oilers to shore up their goaltending situation. There are questions as to whether this team should spend money on goaltending or go with a journyman and use the money elsewhere in the roster. I think with a very good defence and excellent goaltending this team can go far, especially in the second season where these things stand out more than any other.

Just some food for thought regarding the available tenders this summer.