Oilers Lose Hossa Sweepstakes and Dodge a Bullet

After throwing a reported deal of 9 years and 92 million dollars (at least that is what I take from the Rich Winter quote “I have never been involved in a deal and seen a player get so excited to take $85 million less than he was offered elsewhere.”) at Marian Hossa only to have him sign a 1-year 7.45 million dollar contract with Detroit it seems as though the Oilers have lost again. However, in some fashion I believe that they have won in a few areas.

First, they have proven through the league that they are trying to get better and obtain a high profile player. This act will hopefully show other teams and players that they have the drive and the vision needed to be successful and possible will not have to overpay to get free agents in the future.

Second, they have banished the thought that they are only a small market Canadian team that can not go after big names. Which will only help the credibility of the other Canadian teams and show the strength of the Canadian dollar in the new NHL.

Third, they do not have a player taking up 16% of their cap room for next year and will have to money available to start negotiations with the likes of Horcoff and have money to resign players like Gagner, Cogliano and Smid when the time comes.

Forth, they still have to fill out a little part of their line up and will avoid having to trade players for draft picks to get under the salary cap for next year.

Many questions are still floating around Edmonton as to “do you attempt to get Hossa next year on July 1^st when he becomes a free agent again?” My simple answer to that is no. If he did not want to take the chance and come to Edmonton believing they are not an elite team, then we do not need a player like that wearing the Oilers silks.

Hemmer's Triggerman

The difference between this offseason and last has been somewhat Jekyll and Hyde. The 06-07 season could be called nothing less than disastrous, with the team failing to make the playoffs after being in the Stanley Cup on top of trading away the face of the team, Ryan Smyth. This lead into an offseason in which Kevin Lowe claimed to be bring in “six to eight new faces”, a large amount by any means. So insert UFA signings like Mathieu Garon and Sheldon Souray, much talked about RFA signing Dustin Penner, as well as one of the largest youth movements in recent memory. So abracadabra and we are back in the Stanley Cup finals right? Wrong.

The team struggled to find chemistry, and this was most evident on a horrendous power play that lacked imagination. This put the team in the basement of the west for much of the 2007 calendar year and made the playoffs yet another distant dream. But as the New Year rolled forward so did the team. The youth movement started looking good and players like Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, Robert Nilsson, and Denis Grebeshkov started showing why they were put on this team. The team finished strong only to be eliminated from the playoffs in the final days.

Which brings us to ‘Offseason 2008’. Kevin Lowe has gone from man possessed to man relaxed. He has pieces to deal and holes to fill, but nothing major. From all accounts in his quotes and actions he is in no rush to make a trade, at least not in the same fashion as last year. During the draft weekend it was expected something would be done, but the prices were high and Lowe wasn’t buying. The holes this team has are a bit of a grey area as guys like Curtis Glencross, Jarret Stoll are free agents. The one constant is a top line forward that can play with Hemsky. More specifically this team needs a left wing shooter who will finish the passes he receives from Hemmer. This leads us to a list of three candidates I have compiled from around the league. Things I want out of this spot include someone who likes to shoot (and finishes!), has veteran experience to improve on the youngest team in the NHL, and obviously someone who is not only available but affordable. So let’s get into it.

Jason Blake - $4 mill cap hit for four more seasons

Thoughts: It is pretty obvious that Blake is available and I’d assume for not a lot. He was second in the league in shots for LW to Ovechkin, so he’s a shooter for sure. Had a tough year for goals with only 15 but put up 57 points. His shooting % was a awful 4.5 and his career average is not much better at 8. From the stats he looks to be a 25 goal scorer who had one unbelievable 40 goal year with an unsustainable 13% shooting. So maybe he doesn’t offer the finish you’d like, especially for 4 mill but he gets a lot of shots on net and who knows what can happen with a new team. He has been very healthy in his career playing at least 75 games every year and was able to play every game this season even after being diagnosed with cancer.

Eric Cole - $4 mill cap hit for next year then UFA

Thoughts: Cole’s name has come up on numerous occasions and there is a reason for it. He’s the type of player we’re looking for and he fits. He was in the top 20 for LW shooters and scored 22 goals in a sub par year for him. He is a 30 goal scorer with some speed and size which are two qualities that Blake doesn’t offer. He is the youngest of the three that will be listed at 29 but still offers some veteran leadership including a cup win (though only playing two games). He is likely to cost the most in terms of assets but would fit in well on a line with Horcoff and Hemsky. One major issue with Cole is health as he has yet to play a full season.

Marcus Naslund – UFA

Thoughts: Naslund is an interesting idea. He is a long time Canuck coming off of a subpar year in which is relationship with the team became clearly strained. There are many things to like about Naslund; he is a veteran leader, was tenth in shooting for LW last year, has been a 40 goal scorer three times, has decent speed, and has been healthy throughout his career. The question marks surrounding him would be obviously his age as he will be 35 this year, as well as his willingness to play in the NHL and for the Oilers. Speculation is that he may want to return to Sweden instead of staying in North America. Finally we would have to know what kind of compensation Naslund is looking for. Coming off of a couple of seasons where he did not meet his career numbers Naslund could be had for an affordable price, assuming he is able to return to old form.

Nevertheless there are some interesting pieces to be had for the Oilers most pressing need. The question remains at what price and is Lowe willing to pay it. It will be interesting to see.

Oiler UFA and RFAs

Part 1 – Introductions and Allan Rourke

With the Oilers signing Grebeshkov, Nilsson, and Gilbert early this “off-season” the question comes back what should they do with the other UFAs and RFAs. Now I know that the Oilers have many other RFA contracts (ex. Troy Bodie) but, I will limit these entry to players that have played at least 15 games with the big club.

Introductions:

The UFAs

Player	07/08 team	07/08 compensation	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM
Geoff Sanderson	Edmonton	1,500,000	41	3	10	13	-7	16
Marty Reasoner	Edmonton	950,000	82	11	14	25	-17	50
Curtis Glencross	Columbus	522,500	36	6	6	12	+8	25
	Edmonton		26	9	4	13		28
Allan Rourke	Edmonton	475,000	13	0	0	0	-1	5
	Springfield		44	3	11	14	-6	24

The RFAs

Player	07/08 team	07/08 compensation	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM
Joni Pitkanen	Edmonton	2,400,000	63	8	18	26	-5	56
Jarret Stoll	Edmonton	2,200,000	81	14	22	36	-23	74
Marc Pouliot	Edmonton	942,000	24	1	6	7	-1	18
	Springfield		55	21	26	47	-11	47
JF Jacques	Edmonton	650,000	9	0	0	0	-3	2
	Springfield		38	11	14	25	-13	63
Danny Syvret	Springfield	567,000	36	1	7	8	0	14
	Hershey		27	1	11	12	-4	29
Zach Stortini	Edmonton	475,000	66	3	9	12	3	201
	Springfield		4	3	2	5	0	21

Now that the introductions are out of the way let’s get down to what the Oilers should do with said players:

UFAs

I will start with Allan Rourke as out of the UFAs he earned the least, so if nothing else he will win at being the first player talked about in this blog.

Originally brought to the club as part of the deal that also brought back the Oilers 3^rd round selection in 2008 (later parlayed into Dustin Penner) for a 2^nd round pick in 2008. Rourke filled the role of utility defensemen when Souray, Tarnstrom, and Greene went down to various injuries from Nov. 10 – Dec. 10. During his time with the big club Rourke suited up for 13 games (the team went 6-6-1), playing an average of 10:55 per game. Which means that he played the equivalent of roughly 2 whole games while the team was playing .500 hockey. However he was dependable enough that he was only -1 during the time.

Now what should the Oilers do? Well with Grebeshkov, Gilbert, Staios, Greene, Souray, Smid already signed and Pitkanen a pending RFA and other prospects knocking on the door, Rourke would be pretty low on the depth chart. Relegating him to Springfield for the length of his new contract barring another rash of injuries. However, I would like to see the Oilers re-sign him as he is the ideal 8^th defensemen reliable and cheap. As well, if nothing else he could enhance the Falcons lineup for the 08-09 season by adding a guy who has been a career AHL player.

Coming Up: Part 2 Glencross – Sanderson

IIHF Update

With the announcement that Sam Gagner will be drawing into the IIHF game for Canada tomorrow against Norway 6 Edmonton Oiler players will be representing their countries at the tournament (7 if you count Garon being the backups backup and I don’t so 6).

Now I know that during the qualifying rounds of this tournament powerhouses like Canada, US, Russia end up playing teams like Italy, Germany, Belarus etc. So stats this early do not usually mean much with teams winning games 10-1. However, it is still interesting to look at.

Player	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	TOI
Staios	Canada	6	0	0	0	+7	16:35
Grebeshkov	Russia	6	0	4	4	+6	13:48
Nilsson	Sweden	6	2	3	5	+5	12:00
Greene	USA	6	0	0	0	0	13:47
Gilbert	USA	6	1	3	4	0	16:39

So what can we glean from these results.

Well “Steady” Steve is having a pretty good campaign. Still no points to show, however, that is not what he is there for. He has been on the ice for 2 of the 10 goals scored against Canada, with both coming against the United States. He is also logging a fair amount of ice time as Duncan Keith is the team leader at 17:37.

Grebeshkov is also having a good tournament for his country. Despite having the second lowest TOI of regulars he is leading the Russian defensemen in point production. His +/- statistic is also pretty impressive at the Russians only had one lop sided win during the qualification round.

Mr. Nilsson is also picking up where he left off the regular season and is performing at a high level. He is currently tied for 7^th in point production on the Swedish team. While averaging much less ice time then his fellow countrymen.

Greene is much like Staios in the fact that he has no points, however, again if he was recruited to score them, the US scouting team did not do a very good job. However, he is logging some valuable minutes and has stayed even through the tournament which means that he must be playing responsible hockey.

Finally, Gilbert has been counted on to log the 3^rd most minutes on his team. He has also produced the 2^nd most points on the United States backend. While picking up where he left off has played responsible hockey and is even through the qualifying round.

Take from it what you want. But, to me with 4 of the 5 of these guys being 25 or under, with the addition of 18 year old Gagner and Pitkanen who left the team. The future looks bright for the Edmonton Oilers.

Condolences go out to the Stall family

Earth to Lowe!

So they announced the Hart Trophy finalists the other day and something stood out to me. Russians. Young Russians. Ovechkin and Malkin make up two of the three finalists, and if one should win it will be the first time since Federov in 1994 and only second time ever. Apparently the Motherland has started churning out a very creamy crop of competitors (Alliteration!). Though it is rare to see Russians amongst the finalists of this award it will undoubtedly be a continuing trend. Three of the top four point getters in the NHL were Russian, and thats not including guys like Kovalchuk, Kovalev, and younger stars like Zherdev and Radulov. Players like these bring finesse and skill to a team and even more importantly: Goal Scoring.

This is where Stu MacGregor and Kevin Prendergast come in. This team is in dire need of a one shot goal scorer not seen in these parts since the first 20 games of Petr Sykora. This team is lacking and as Lowetide put it, there is one clear reason, "Russia is Death Valley for the Oilers at the draft table". The draft list of Russians for this team is nothing short of pitiful. The list since the 2000 Draft:

• Alexander Bumagin
• Vyacheslav Trukhno
• Roman Tesliuk
• Mikhail Zhukov
• Ivan Koltsov
• Alexei Mikhnov
• Alexander Lyubimov
• Evgeny Muratov

Not a single NHL player on that list. Trukhno is the only one who might break that curse but even he is not a sure thing. That is eight Russians selected of the 77 picks the Oilers have used in these drafts(10%). In the last three years the Draft average is 5.4% so we are drafting Russian born players at a high clip and have nothing to show for it. We can point the gun at Kent Nilsson and Frank Musil who were both brought in as European scouts by Kevin Lowe. This team is clearly not doing enough to bring in European and specifically Russian talent. Now I understand Ovechkin and Malkin went 1-2 at the 2004 draft but Oilers have had ample opportunity to draft skilled Russians high. Taking Plante over Cherapanov at last years draft was as much about Cherry being Russian as it was about them deciding to take a defenceman no matter what. The scouting staff needs a serious wake up call and hopefully that call answers our scoring needs.


Ovechkin for the Hart.

What if?

What if the Oilers had not signed Penner to the offer sheet? We could assume that the Oilers would have finished with a worse record, due to the fact they would have been short a 23 goal man. Sure someone would have picked up a piece of that but likely not the entire total.

The question is then how much worse would the overall record have been? Currently the Oilers or really Anaheim holds the 12^th pick overall. Say for simplicity sake, say that no one was able to pick up the 4 game winning goals Penner scored this year. That is 4-8 points missing from the overall total, dropping the Oilers down to 80-84 points giving them the 6^th – 9^th overall pick. Which is around same pick that landed them Gagner last year, in what is said to be a deep draft.

So my question is simply would you rather have Penner or the possibility to take a player like:

Player	Team	Position	GP	Goals	Assists	Points
Luke Schenn	Kelowna	D	57	7	21	28
Kyle Beach	Everett	C	60	27	33	60
Zack Boychuk	Lethbridge	C	61	33	39	72

?

Pretty Lackluster

It is the second intermission between Washington and Philly and I am bored so I will throw out some stats:

Former Oilers involved in the Pitkanen trade:

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	TOI	+/-
Jason Smith	0	0	0	18:35	-6
Joffery Lupul	0	1	1	15:38	0

Now those are some pretty lackluster numbers. First, Jason Smith is -6 (really -7 since he was on for AO’s goal in the second period). That is pretty brutal for a guy that seemed like a decent shut down d-man while he was in Edmonton. Second, 1 point in 6.6 games for Lupul is atrocious.

*Note* Jason Smith has be on the ice for 16 out of the 23 goals Washington has scored during the series

Think the Flyers would like to have another puck moving d-man during this series?

*Well with Lupul scoring the OT winner throw this one away