4.25.2008

What if?

What if the Oilers had not signed Penner to the offer sheet? We could assume that the Oilers would have finished with a worse record, due to the fact they would have been short a 23 goal man. Sure someone would have picked up a piece of that but likely not the entire total.

The question is then how much worse would the overall record have been? Currently the Oilers or really Anaheim holds the 12th pick overall. Say for simplicity sake, say that no one was able to pick up the 4 game winning goals Penner scored this year. That is 4-8 points missing from the overall total, dropping the Oilers down to 80-84 points giving them the 6th – 9th overall pick. Which is around same pick that landed them Gagner last year, in what is said to be a deep draft.

So my question is simply would you rather have Penner or the possibility to take a player like:

Player

Team

Position

GP

Goals

Assists

Points

Luke Schenn

Kelowna

D

57

7

21

28

Kyle Beach

Everett

C

60

27

33

60

Zack Boychuk

Lethbridge

C

61

33

39

72

?

5 comments:

Jonathan said...

I'll let you know in 5 years.

Seriously, though, I find it difficult to choose Penner, especially when you toss in the 2nd and 3rd round selections too.

Backhand said...

I'll give you that picking that high would likely give you a good player. But Penner is a proven NHL commodity. He has proven to be a 25-30 goal scorer which is a lot more than any of the players you listed can say for themselves.

Tyler said...

Penner is a 30 or so goal a year man in the bigs already. Plus its not like were talking about a guy in the twilight of his career. This was his second full season and he will be better next year and likely better the year after. Not to mention there is also the benefit of his big body presence brings in front of the net. I would make the argument that all though Penner cannot tip a puck like Smyth could (who I might add developed that skill as he aged), but, Penner actually makes for a better screen in front and as such creates more offense then his personal stats might show. This said; it would be nice to choose higher in the draft however, choosing highly in the draft does not ensure a future hall of famer or even a quality big league talent. We're all aware of the numerous draft busts, the late 6 and 7th round steals, and the facts that amazing players like Dion Phaneuf, Zac Parise, and Ryan Getzlaf going towards the middle and late first round. I'll take the made hand now and be happy with the fact were being dealt a solid starting hand in decent position on this shoot. From here we just have to rely on our poker skills to see the right tells in the right players and honestly the cards, the position and the rest become secondary.

Jonathan said...

Well, I've thought it over (http://coppernblue.blogspot.com/2008/04/calculating-value-of-dustin-penner.html), and frankly, I've completely changed my mind. The Penner signing was a good decision.

Rory said...

Hard to say, the only one of those players I would take MAYBE over Penner is Schenn, but despite the final rankings I think he should go in the top 5, even over Tyler Myers, who can skate well for a 6'7 but Schenn should be in the NHL next year.