Caution!

While taking a management class in University I actually came across a useful piece of information (if you've ever taken one you'll understand how amazing this is). I had a prof once say to me "people are often promoted to their highest level of incompetence" and that statement has stuck with me. Its shockingly true, organizations see someone doing good work at their position so they promote them into the next opening. There is little to no thought put in to whether they would be good at this new job, just that they were good at their last one. This continues to happen until they stop performing well, and then they are stuck in this position. So now you have someone doing a job they are not very good at and their stuck there.

So I plead discretion to not only Oiler fans, but the team itself. There looks to be a high risk of this happening to this team next year, and there is evidence that it happened this year as well. Look at a guy like Dustin Penner who had a great rookie year in Anaheim. He scored 28 goals playing with Getzlaf and Perry so the Oilers paid him big bucks to do more. Except he was no longer playing soft 2nd line minutes, he was playing on the top line against the other teams top checkers. Not only that but he is now playing with Hemsky and Horcoff who rely on speed, which exposed Penner's footspeed.

I will admit that Penner has surpassed most expectations placed upon him and has had a nice second half to the season but I could only imagine what he could have done if the Oilers played him in the role he had previously succeeded in. His struggle is no more obvious than his horrible EV production (EV/60 1.33)

So now I look to next years team and can foresee some problems there. There are young players on this team who are going to have increased expectations on them, whether desereved or not.

Nilsson/Gagner/Cogliano - three players who had outstanding breakout seasons. I can see MacTavish leaning on them more heavily, especially if the top line struggles. These kids did well but did it primarily against soft comp. Playing them against top defensive players could shatter their confidence.

Glencross/Brodziak - two guys who did insanely better than anyone could have imagined. Glencross for a UFA Tarnstrom and Brodziak with their 7th rounder in '03, these guys have overachieved already. Both showed offensive skill this season but lets not kid ourselves, they did it against the other teams worst players.

Gilbert/Grebeshkov - probably the most amazing surprises of the season, specifically Grebeshkov. These players will be relied upon to play top 4 minutes and maybe even top 2 minutes next season. Though they have been successful in this role at times both had terrible stretches. Gilbert showed signs of wearing out for a large stretch towards the end of the season and Grebeskov had a tumultuous first 2/3 of a season. These guys are probably a safer bet to cover their increased roles than the others.

I"m not saying players need to be babied along, I just want people to use some discretion before assuming great things and an immediate payoff from these players. It will be interesting to see who is given the opportunity and who succeeds in this opportunity. Any thoughts?

Best Oiler Rookie?

With the season winding down it is an appropriate time to start gauging the performances of the future of this hockey team. The guys that I am going to look at are Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert and Curtis Glencross.

Bios

Name	Age	Contract status
Sam Gagner	18	3 year entry level 875,000 per ~750,000 in bonuses
Andrew Cogliano	20	3 year entry level 850,000 per ~ 350,000 in bonuses
Tom Gilbert	25	Pending RFA 835,000 ~ 75,000 in bonuses
Curtis Glencross	26	Pending UFA Group VI 522,500

*all figures from www.nhlscap.com

Let’s look first at some overall statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	PP/60	TOI/G
Gagner	12	36	48	2.50	15:33
Cogliano	18	25	43	2.49	13:30
Gilbert	12	19	31	1.09	22:10
Glencross	12	10	22	2.04	11:19

First off, Gagner does lead all these rookies in scoring, but when you break it down into points per 60 minutes Cogliano is right there with him with Glencross only trailing by 0.46. As well, Gilbert is logging an incredible amount of ice time for a rookie rear guard.

Ranking:

1. Gagner
2. Cogliano
3. Gilbert and Glencross

Now let’s look at some even strength statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	EV PP/60	EV TOI/G	+/-
Gagner	8	24	32	2.05	12:39	-19
Cogliano	15	19	34	2.46	10:43	0
Gilbert	10	11	21	0.94	17:24	-8
Glencross	11	9	20	2.04	10:18	+8

Looking at the even strength stats a couple of things jump out, first Cogliano is out producing Gagner even with playing less time. As well Gilbert being a D-man will take a hit in his point production. However the other glaring statistic comes from the +/- category. Gagner’s number is pretty atrocious (lupulesque) whereas, Glencross, Cogliano and Gilbert are significantly better.

Ranking:

1. Cogliano
2. Gilbert and Glencross
3. Gagner

Now let’s look at power play statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	PPP/60	PP TOI/G
Gagner	4	12	16	4.64	2:47
Cogliano	1	5	6	2.33	2:00
Gilbert	2	6	8	3.48	2:12
Glencross	1	1	2	2.15	0:58

Obviously, playing on the top power play unit has helped Gagner pad some of his stats, however, for a rookie scoring 4.64 power play points per 60 minutes is fantastic. In comparison the top power play scorer in the league Alex Kovalev scores at around 8.3 PPP/60 and Jaromir Jagr is scoring at 4.62 PPP/60. Then looking at Gilbert’s numbers he is scoring at 3.48 PPP/60 on the second unit and the leading PP scoring D-Man is Sergei Gonchar scoring at 6.28 PPP/60 while playing 3 minutes of PP time more per game. Not to be overlooked is Glencross scoring at a 2.15 PPP/60 which make me wonder why is Pisani in front of the net on the second line and not Glenner?

Ranking

1. Gagner
2. Gilbert
3. Cogliano and Glencross

Now let’s look at some short handed statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	SH TOI/G
Gagner	0	0	0	0:06
Cogliano	2	1	3	0:47
Gilbert	0	2	2	2:33
Glencross	0	0	0	0:02

Now I know that this seems like an unfair stat to look at since 2 of the 4 players do not kill penalties. However, I think that it would be unfair to Gilbert as he does eat up some serious PK time and that in his limited time Cogliano is a threat when out killing penalties.

Ranking

1. Gilbert
2. Cogliano
3. Gagner and Glencross

Now we will look at some of the more trivial statistics

Player	Hits/60	Blocks/60	TA/60	GA/60	TA GA differential
Gagner	0.89	1.56	1.35	2.24	-0.89
Cogliano	1.33	1.62	1.68	2.66	-0.98
Gilbert	0.81	5.30	0.98	2.49	-1.51
Glencross	8.15	1.02	1.02	1.94	-0.92

TA = Take Away

GA = Give Away

Looking at these statistics a couple of things are noticeable first, Glencross has added an aspect that the Oilers sorely missed for the first 50 games in that he goes out and attempts to hit anything that moves. Second, obviously being a defenseman Gilbert will lead this quartet in blocks as he is the last line between the shooter and Rolie the rebound factory. As well, it is good to see that 3 of the 4 of these rookies are less than 1 in the take away give away differential.

Ranking:

N/A

So now that we have looked at how the rookies stack up against each other in each of the categories I will try to rank their seasons. The one factor that I think is greatly overlooked is the age of the rookies. Does being 25 and 26 detract anything from Gilbert and Glencross as they have had 5 years of extra development over Cogliano and 7 over Gagner? Does being the youngest player in the NHL and making the jump from junior straight to the NHL add anything to what Gagner has accomplished? Is it a good sign that Cogliano showed no second half slow down that has plagued other players making the jump from the NCAA to the NHL? Looking at the arbitrary rankings that I have given after each statistic the break down is as follows:

Gagner:

2 – 1^st place finishes

0 – 2^nd place finishes

2 – 3^rd place finishes

Total = 8 points

Cogliano:

1 – 1^st place finish

2 – 2^nd place finishes

1 – 3^rd place finish

Total = 8 points

Gilbert:

1 – 1^st place finish

2 – 2^nd place finishes

1 – 3^rd place finish

Total = 8 Points

Glencross:

0 – 1^st place finishes

1 – 2^nd place finish

3 – 3^rd place finishes

Total = 5 Points

Looking at this there is a 3 way tie between Gagner, Cogliano, and Gilbert. My vote however, goes to Gagner as when he is 20, 25 or 26 he will be the franchise player of the Oilers.