3.16.2008

Stoll Long?

Ok I know the title sounds like it came from the Edmonton Sun but hey, I'm allowed a cheezy pun once in a while. That title is probably as bad as Jarret Stoll's season, so its kind of fitting. The man is not the player he was in 05-06 and his play is showing it. Half way through last season he got his puzzle box scrambled and couldn't put the pieces back together. I'm not sure if the concussion problems are to blame but Stoll is not producing. I'll read you his line:


71 gp 11-20-31 EV -22

I don't even know where to start with this guy. His -22 is a team worst, 5 points more (or less?) than the next worst (Reasoner & Gagner). He has only contributed 31 pts offensively, 20 of which have come on the PP. He only has 2 goals in over 800 even strength minutes. That EV point production is Marty Reasoner bad (like actually, i did the math). His shooting % is 6.5 for a guy known for his shot.

There are things Stoll brings to a game. He has won 55% of his draws in each of the past 3 seasons. He has a big right handed shot on the PP which is where all his production comes from. MacTavish has propped him up on power play ice time as he has the most on the team but his production has not earned it. Top 5 PPP/60 on the Oilers:

Hemsky - 5.93
Penner - 4.43
Horcoff - 4.36
Stoll - 4.23
Gagner - 4.19

His numbers are not terrible but they are not great either. For the amount of quality time he gets on the powerplay he should be producing at a higher level. I wonder what is the role Stoll has on this team going forward into next year. He will provide a point shot on the PP, large penalty kill minutes, and absolutely nothing EV wise. So where does that fit into our lineup? I'll take a shot at next season's opening lineup for forwards:

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
Moreau- ? -Pisani
Glencross-Brodziak-Stortini

Now clearly this won't likely happen. The 'kid line' may not be able to stay together and I'm assuming Glencross resigns as a UFA. Otherwise these players are all here to stay in some capacitiy (barring trade) so for now I'm going with this. I understand we have to squeeze Torres in there somewhere and I think that just means we wait for Moreau to get injured and he takes that spot. No seriously. Maybe he takes Cogliano's spot and we move Cogs into the 3c spot but I just don't like the idea of stifling Cog's offensive development at such a young age.

To me it looks like Stoll is in line for that 3c spot. Its difficult to put Stoll on a checking line as he clearly lacks skill in that department. But assuming he improves on this I still think there are better options. You do lose his shot on the PP but with Souray returning the loss is minimized. Then there is the issue of salary. Stoll made 2.2 mil this season and I doubt will be taking much of a pay cut. I'm not entirely sure if he requires the 5% raise some players do but I'm sure your spending at least 2 mil to resign him.

Options from within w/ 07-08 salary:

Marc Pouliot (942k) - at some point he needs to establish himself as an NHL player. The offensive first-rounder he was touted as is long gone but if he can find a solid 2 way game and learn to compete this could be his spot. Surrounded by Moreau and Pisani on the wings there is a lot of room to go with the great support. He is an RFA this summer that could be had for less than 1 mil.
Ryan O'Marra (1.2mil) - Former first round pick has struggled this year. Started out in the ECHL and then moved up to the AHL. He hasn't really provided much offence this season but has been improving as the season grows longer. You have to include a guy of O'Marra's background in this discussion. He does have an expensive entry level contract because of his draft status. But the organization has plans for him to play in this exact role ala Mike Peca so his time could be now.

UFA Options w/ 07-08 salary:

Yanic Perrault (1.5 mil) - The perennial face off leader could provide some leadership in the young locker room as well as some defensive play. Does not provide much regarding offence.
Mike Peca (1.315) - On the down slide of his career he still has value. Provides a good amount of offence and can shut down opposing centers well. Not sure what his relationship is to this team after his last term here but I did read a quote where he complimented MacTavish for being intelligent.

There are many others cheaper than Stoll like Curtis Brown, Shean Donovan, Stephane Yelle, etc...

I understand he is young and could improve but his track record has never shown him to be more than a third line player. He parlayed his cup run season to decent contract and has not covered that bet. After drafting him he was groomed as the replacement to Todd Marchant and that is exactly what he is. Its time the Oilers stopped over paying their bottom six and used the money else where. If Stoll is offered any resemblance of a contract as an RFA you make the easy and smart decision and let him walk. Otherwise its a tougher decision, and one that should be thought out.

4 comments:

Josh said...

Something I want to add:

It should be debated about the impact of keeping Stoll over letting him walk. The guy has killed any line he's been on. Hemsky and Penner, Nilsson earlier in the season, and all the others. I'd even go so far as to say Torres at the beginning of the year suffered from playing with the guy.

Resigning Stoll means taking a risk and giving him another shot. That roster spot could be used to develop another player like Pouliot. Is that a chance your willing to take?

Paying Stoll 2+ million dollars to do a job he isn't even that good at is ludicrous. A third line of Moreau/Torres, Stoll, and Pisani is costing this team 6.5-7 million. Not smart financial choices.

Where do you put Stoll and does he cover the money? Is there a roster spot on this team that allows him to?

A lot of things need to fall into place.

Jon G said...

Yeah, Stoll must be in some of the long term plans or I would have assumed he would have been dealt. However, maybe Lowe remembers what happened last year and did not want to deal away roster players this year. Interesting to see how all his points were on the PP. Any idea what they looked like when Pronger was here? because I assume if all his points now are on the PP he probably cashed in on the PP while Pronger was the other Dman on the PP

Josh said...

Stoll since the lockout
05-06 - 31 pp points for 46% of his total
06-07 - 17 pp points for 44% of his total
07-08 - 20 pp points for 65% of his total

Not only has he lost any sort of production 5x5 but his PP production has dropped too
05-06 - 0.38 ppp/game
06-07 - 0.33 ppp/game
07-08 - 0.28 ppp/game

I didn't break it down into ppp/60 cause i'm too lazy. But his time has been cut this season from previous:
05-06 - 5:00 min/game
06-07 - 4:45 min/game
07-08 - 4:00 min/game

Rory said...

Unfortunately have to say I want him out of Edmonton, before fans drive him out, hard to say if it is concussions, personal, or he does not want to be here anymore. As for filling that 3c spot Pouliot is not the best fit for Pisani and Moreau, I wouldn't mind Brodziak with those two, maybe Pouliot with Stortini and Glencross, seems like an odd combo but it could help his game, sure did for Brodziak. Someone that has been with Edmonton for several years will likely be gone (Stoll, Reasoner, Torres), the one thing to hope for is that none of the kids are following Jordan Staal's sophomore season too closely.