Blame Game Part I

“First to worst”, “Champs to chumps”, “Absolute fucking garbage”….while working on slogans for the Oilers’ season ticket campaign I was thinking about how we could go from such glory to this. I remember the Stanley Cup being in Rexall for game 6 and thinking it couldn’t get any better than this, and that was only about nine months ago. What went wrong? Everyone wants to say it was our AHL defence, or how the “deepest set of forwards in the NHL” (a Kelly Hrudey quote) could be 29^th in goals for (I hope Columbus passes us), or some even say the injuries of late, and I’m not even going to touch on the Smyth trade (though I’ll say it largely contributes to our losing streak).

But I think I’m going to say it is none of the above (well the second one is close). We are fucktacular because certain players caught KLowe (he should be a bad rapper) in a state of euphoric disillusion post playoff and bent him over the bargaining table. There contracts have forced us to remain status quo because they are payed well to play a position they do not succeed at and the money they make has tied up our budget to bring in better players. I’m going to say Fernando Pisani, Ales Hemsky, and Shawn Horcoff should take the lion’s share of blame. That’s right, those exact three players. They took playoff glory and got blank cheques from Lowe and the EIG and then went on cruise easy street in their Escalades. Now I know you going to want to say guys like Lupul and Torres have done fuck all this season and your right, but they don’t get the blame. Lupul’s contributed nothing to last years cup run so he shouldn’t have been expected to do it this year and his 2.2 mil salary is decent for the 28 goal scorer he was last season (GM’s can’t see into the future….shocking I know, now if only everyone else knew). Now you’re going to say well Torres did, and your right, but he makes 900k this season, and this post is about bang for your buck, unfortunately he’s about even or slightly below which is close enough to be left off the list, but still leaving a sour taste in my mouth after what I saw him do last year.

Now I’ll break the list down even further. Pisani has 25 points in 68 games, and 2.5 million that does not make, but he provides two way play like no other forward and it shows as he currently leads our team overall in +/- (amongst regulars). His 14 goals are about on par with what he’s accustomed to and we all have to admit he was paid because he was deemed a playoff performer (Re: John Madden) and not making the playoffs didn’t allow him the chance to earn his money. Ales Hemsky’s season can not be considered as good as his last. 49 points in 57 games is not very good but is only a mediocre drop in points per game (.86 this, .95 last). His 3.5 mil salary this season was paid thinking he would improve upon his totals of last season, his underachieving pales in comparison to the greatest cancer this team has had to bare. That’s right, the super model himself. Shawn fucking Horcoff. I’m writing this assuming that we can all agree prior to this season we knew 3.6 mil was an overpayment, we just didn’t realize how much of one. But I’m not here to argue his contract. Wow it’s the end of the third paragraph and I’m finally getting to my point. The Edmonton Oilers (as any hockey team) have needed a first line center all season and Horcoff as FAILED in that role. Shawn Horcoff is not a first line center and does not belong on the Oilers.

The expectations I hold to the 1C spot on any roster is a player who can carry the load offensively for his team no matter the circumstances (or linemates), still hold his head above water defensively. For comparisons sake, I created a list of all first line centers in the NHL. It shows their point per game totals over the past three seasons in the NHL as well as the total +/- of these seasons.

Team	Player	06-07	05-06	03-04	Avg. of 3	Total +/-
Pittsburgh	Crosby	1.52	1.26		1.38	+6
San Jose	Thornton	1.36	1.58	0.95	1.30	+70
TampaBay	Lecavalier	1.31	0.94	0.81	1.01	+21
Ottawa	Spezza	1.28	1.32	0.71	1.08	+57
Boston	Savard	1.25	1.18	1.16	1.20	-14
Buffalo	Briere	1.22	1.21	0.79	1.04	+15
Colorado	Sakic	1.19	1.06	1.07	1.12	+26
Detroit	Datsyuk	1.11	1.16	0.91	1.06	+54
Florida	Jokinen	1.05	1.09	0.71	0.95	+11
NYR	Nylander	1.03	0.98	0.78	0.98	+39
Toronto	Sundin	1.01	1.11	0.93	1.01	+17
Anaheim	McDonald	0.96	1.04	0.38	0.79	+26
Vancouver	H. Sedin	0.95	0.91	0.55	0.81	+49
Calgary	Langkow	0.95	0.72	0.64	0.76	+26
Los Angeles	Kopitar	0.86			0.86	-9
Carolina	Staal	0.85	1.22	0.38	0.82	-21
Nashville	Arnott	0.85	0.94	0.78	0.86	+51
New Jersey	Gomez	0.85	1.02	0.88	0.92	+32
Montreal	Koivu	0.84	0.86	0.81	0.84	-8
NYI	Yashin	0.84	0.80	0.72	0.79	-6
Minnesota	Rolston	0.83	0.96	0.59	0.79	+27
Dallas	Modano	0.73	0.99	0.58	0.77	+9
St. Louis	Weight	0.71	0.81	0.87	0.84	-13
Edmonton	Horcoff	0.65	0.92	0.50	0.69	-18
Phoenix	Reinprict	0.63	0.65	0.66	0.65	+10
Columbus	Federov	0.62	0.69	0.81	0.71	-13
Chicago	Ruutu	0.57	0.33	0.57	0.53	-34
Philly	Carter	0.56	0.52		0.53	+51
Washington	Beech	0.44	0.30		0.42	-21
Atlanta	Holik	0.36	0.52	0.68	0.52	-5

*As of March 24, 2007.

So as you can see Horcoff ranks 24^th out of 30 centers in scoring this season. Of the bottom 15 teams listed only 6 are in the playoffs and of the top 15 teams listed 10 of them currently hold a playoff spot. Of the top 18 teams 13 hold playoff spots leaving only 3 of the bottom 12 teams in the playoffs. Only 1 in the bottom 8 holds a spot and that is because Holik plays on a team with Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk, and the Thrashers also felt a glaring need for a #1C so they traded for Tkachuk in Feburary.

This shows a relationship between the offensive performance of you top center and your teams overall performance. Other things that stand out from the chart are the +/- of every player. Only 2 players out of the 30 have a worse +/- over the last 3 years than Horcoff. Of the 16 teams currently in playoff positions only 2 have plus with a negative +/- (Holik, Staal).

End of Part I