Playoff Hope?

Here is the statistical chance according to sportsclubstats.com (click to enlarge).

Basically just run the table and we're in. Don't see what the big deal is.

Best Oiler Rookie?

With the season winding down it is an appropriate time to start gauging the performances of the future of this hockey team. The guys that I am going to look at are Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert and Curtis Glencross.

Bios

Name	Age	Contract status
Sam Gagner	18	3 year entry level 875,000 per ~750,000 in bonuses
Andrew Cogliano	20	3 year entry level 850,000 per ~ 350,000 in bonuses
Tom Gilbert	25	Pending RFA 835,000 ~ 75,000 in bonuses
Curtis Glencross	26	Pending UFA Group VI 522,500

*all figures from www.nhlscap.com

Let’s look first at some overall statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	PP/60	TOI/G
Gagner	12	36	48	2.50	15:33
Cogliano	18	25	43	2.49	13:30
Gilbert	12	19	31	1.09	22:10
Glencross	12	10	22	2.04	11:19

First off, Gagner does lead all these rookies in scoring, but when you break it down into points per 60 minutes Cogliano is right there with him with Glencross only trailing by 0.46. As well, Gilbert is logging an incredible amount of ice time for a rookie rear guard.

Ranking:

1. Gagner
2. Cogliano
3. Gilbert and Glencross

Now let’s look at some even strength statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	EV PP/60	EV TOI/G	+/-
Gagner	8	24	32	2.05	12:39	-19
Cogliano	15	19	34	2.46	10:43	0
Gilbert	10	11	21	0.94	17:24	-8
Glencross	11	9	20	2.04	10:18	+8

Looking at the even strength stats a couple of things jump out, first Cogliano is out producing Gagner even with playing less time. As well Gilbert being a D-man will take a hit in his point production. However the other glaring statistic comes from the +/- category. Gagner’s number is pretty atrocious (lupulesque) whereas, Glencross, Cogliano and Gilbert are significantly better.

Ranking:

1. Cogliano
2. Gilbert and Glencross
3. Gagner

Now let’s look at power play statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	PPP/60	PP TOI/G
Gagner	4	12	16	4.64	2:47
Cogliano	1	5	6	2.33	2:00
Gilbert	2	6	8	3.48	2:12
Glencross	1	1	2	2.15	0:58

Obviously, playing on the top power play unit has helped Gagner pad some of his stats, however, for a rookie scoring 4.64 power play points per 60 minutes is fantastic. In comparison the top power play scorer in the league Alex Kovalev scores at around 8.3 PPP/60 and Jaromir Jagr is scoring at 4.62 PPP/60. Then looking at Gilbert’s numbers he is scoring at 3.48 PPP/60 on the second unit and the leading PP scoring D-Man is Sergei Gonchar scoring at 6.28 PPP/60 while playing 3 minutes of PP time more per game. Not to be overlooked is Glencross scoring at a 2.15 PPP/60 which make me wonder why is Pisani in front of the net on the second line and not Glenner?

Ranking

1. Gagner
2. Gilbert
3. Cogliano and Glencross

Now let’s look at some short handed statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	SH TOI/G
Gagner	0	0	0	0:06
Cogliano	2	1	3	0:47
Gilbert	0	2	2	2:33
Glencross	0	0	0	0:02

Now I know that this seems like an unfair stat to look at since 2 of the 4 players do not kill penalties. However, I think that it would be unfair to Gilbert as he does eat up some serious PK time and that in his limited time Cogliano is a threat when out killing penalties.

Ranking

1. Gilbert
2. Cogliano
3. Gagner and Glencross

Now we will look at some of the more trivial statistics

Player	Hits/60	Blocks/60	TA/60	GA/60	TA GA differential
Gagner	0.89	1.56	1.35	2.24	-0.89
Cogliano	1.33	1.62	1.68	2.66	-0.98
Gilbert	0.81	5.30	0.98	2.49	-1.51
Glencross	8.15	1.02	1.02	1.94	-0.92

TA = Take Away

GA = Give Away

Looking at these statistics a couple of things are noticeable first, Glencross has added an aspect that the Oilers sorely missed for the first 50 games in that he goes out and attempts to hit anything that moves. Second, obviously being a defenseman Gilbert will lead this quartet in blocks as he is the last line between the shooter and Rolie the rebound factory. As well, it is good to see that 3 of the 4 of these rookies are less than 1 in the take away give away differential.

Ranking:

N/A

So now that we have looked at how the rookies stack up against each other in each of the categories I will try to rank their seasons. The one factor that I think is greatly overlooked is the age of the rookies. Does being 25 and 26 detract anything from Gilbert and Glencross as they have had 5 years of extra development over Cogliano and 7 over Gagner? Does being the youngest player in the NHL and making the jump from junior straight to the NHL add anything to what Gagner has accomplished? Is it a good sign that Cogliano showed no second half slow down that has plagued other players making the jump from the NCAA to the NHL? Looking at the arbitrary rankings that I have given after each statistic the break down is as follows:

Gagner:

2 – 1^st place finishes

0 – 2^nd place finishes

2 – 3^rd place finishes

Total = 8 points

Cogliano:

1 – 1^st place finish

2 – 2^nd place finishes

1 – 3^rd place finish

Total = 8 points

Gilbert:

1 – 1^st place finish

2 – 2^nd place finishes

1 – 3^rd place finish

Total = 8 Points

Glencross:

0 – 1^st place finishes

1 – 2^nd place finish

3 – 3^rd place finishes

Total = 5 Points

Looking at this there is a 3 way tie between Gagner, Cogliano, and Gilbert. My vote however, goes to Gagner as when he is 20, 25 or 26 he will be the franchise player of the Oilers.

The MacBlender

This is Tom Dickson founder of Blendtec. He starts each of his 1 minute spots on youtube with the catch phrase “Will it blend? That is the question.”

Now I have to believe that all of Oilville would agree that Craig MacTavish has done a great job this year getting this team to where it is right now. Through the year, we have seen exponential improvement in aspects of his coaching, especially the development of young players. However, the one aspect of MacT’s coaching that has annoyed me over the past two seasons is constant rearranging of line combinations in the MacBlender.

Like Dickson, MacT at times over the past two seasons seems to put everyone’s name bar into a blender hit speed 3 for a couple seconds and then pull them out. The most recent example of this is the rotating Ales Hemsky and Marc Pouliot on the “top” line. I know that MacT was trying to get Hemmer out of his even strength slump, but replacing Stoll and Penner with Pisani and Reasoner is not how to do it. Taking Hemsky away from the more skill players does not complement his skill set. To be successful Hemsky needs to play with the more offensive minded players. As well, I am sure that some will say that MacT was giving Pouliot a chance to prove himself. But, misusing him is not going to give him a chance. Pouliot is a checker, he is not going to be a sniper or a playmaker, the Oilers drafted him because he was a leader riding on the coat-tails of Sid the Kid. So why set him up for failure playing him in a skill position when that is not or more appropriately will not his game in the NHL?

Now granted that line ups do have to be shuffled every now and again. But, look at what Robert Nilsson has been able to do with regular and consistent line mates instead of being in and out of the line up and playing with different skaters each night.

I think that this year has seen a vast improvement over last in MacT’s coaching ability. I just hope that some aspects continue to change

Puke and Rally

This is what I think about the Oilers season lately, a crazy New Years Eve party. They are the college freshman with the popped collar and something to prove. This is clearly done by predrinking a "2-6" to get as drunk as he can as fast as he can (see: Kevin Lowe's UFA season), putting on the only expensive shirt he owns to try and make up for the rest of his clothes (see: Souray), then storms into the party as the loudest, cockiest ass clown there. You know, the guy that talks like he's got HUGE game but is probably still trying to get his card swiped (see: anything out of management's mouth in the fall).

It gets to be 45 minutes to midnight and no one can find him until you try to go the bathroom and there he is bobbing for apples. His night is done before the clock strikes and the whole point of the party is wasted on him.

But then he finds it within himself to make sure he doesn't go down like that. The 'puke and rally' ensues. Before you know it he's back with a second wind and partying until he scores with a girl or someone carries his ass home.

So now this team is rallying, and rallying hard. A big win over Phoenix tonight puts them 5 points back with 8 games remaining and in 10th place. Still not an easy feat and we likely won't be watching any playoff games this year but impressive no less. If you had told me at the beginning of the year we would be in this spot I'd have told you that you were crazier than a shit house rat. Hell if you had said that to me weeks ago it would have been the same response.

But here we are with our Ron Low era second half rally to try and take 8th. We did some serious dry heaving on New Years and now we're on a roll. Here's our record in the differing calender years:

2007: 16-20-4
2008: 22-12-1

An impressive difference. In a time when we find out Souray is gone for the season, lose Moreau AGAIN, then throw Horcoff on the heap, this team has decided to play. They have won 10 of their last 12 games and are steamrolling their way to the finish line. We don't have to do a lot of digging to find out why. Our second line's stats since we lost Horcoff on January 29th:

Cogliano 21gp 7-10-17 +9
Nilsson 20gp 4-11-15 +8
Gagner 21gp 6-18-24 -4

Two rookies and a sophomore, and three impressive stat lines. This line has been carrying the mail for this team while MacTavish tries to get Hemsky's line working. As these kids grow older they are going to get impressive. They have given this season something to watch and for that I thank them. This team is only looking up for years to come.

And for the first time in over a calender year I've thought that just maybe...they could pull it off.

Stoll Long?

Ok I know the title sounds like it came from the Edmonton Sun but hey, I'm allowed a cheezy pun once in a while. That title is probably as bad as Jarret Stoll's season, so its kind of fitting. The man is not the player he was in 05-06 and his play is showing it. Half way through last season he got his puzzle box scrambled and couldn't put the pieces back together. I'm not sure if the concussion problems are to blame but Stoll is not producing. I'll read you his line:

71 gp 11-20-31 EV -22

I don't even know where to start with this guy. His -22 is a team worst, 5 points more (or less?) than the next worst (Reasoner & Gagner). He has only contributed 31 pts offensively, 20 of which have come on the PP. He only has 2 goals in over 800 even strength minutes. That EV point production is Marty Reasoner bad (like actually, i did the math). His shooting % is 6.5 for a guy known for his shot.

There are things Stoll brings to a game. He has won 55% of his draws in each of the past 3 seasons. He has a big right handed shot on the PP which is where all his production comes from. MacTavish has propped him up on power play ice time as he has the most on the team but his production has not earned it. Top 5 PPP/60 on the Oilers:

Hemsky - 5.93
Penner - 4.43
Horcoff - 4.36
Stoll - 4.23
Gagner - 4.19

His numbers are not terrible but they are not great either. For the amount of quality time he gets on the powerplay he should be producing at a higher level. I wonder what is the role Stoll has on this team going forward into next year. He will provide a point shot on the PP, large penalty kill minutes, and absolutely nothing EV wise. So where does that fit into our lineup? I'll take a shot at next season's opening lineup for forwards:

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
Moreau- ? -Pisani
Glencross-Brodziak-Stortini

Now clearly this won't likely happen. The 'kid line' may not be able to stay together and I'm assuming Glencross resigns as a UFA. Otherwise these players are all here to stay in some capacitiy (barring trade) so for now I'm going with this. I understand we have to squeeze Torres in there somewhere and I think that just means we wait for Moreau to get injured and he takes that spot. No seriously. Maybe he takes Cogliano's spot and we move Cogs into the 3c spot but I just don't like the idea of stifling Cog's offensive development at such a young age.

To me it looks like Stoll is in line for that 3c spot. Its difficult to put Stoll on a checking line as he clearly lacks skill in that department. But assuming he improves on this I still think there are better options. You do lose his shot on the PP but with Souray returning the loss is minimized. Then there is the issue of salary. Stoll made 2.2 mil this season and I doubt will be taking much of a pay cut. I'm not entirely sure if he requires the 5% raise some players do but I'm sure your spending at least 2 mil to resign him.

Options from within w/ 07-08 salary:

Marc Pouliot (942k) - at some point he needs to establish himself as an NHL player. The offensive first-rounder he was touted as is long gone but if he can find a solid 2 way game and learn to compete this could be his spot. Surrounded by Moreau and Pisani on the wings there is a lot of room to go with the great support. He is an RFA this summer that could be had for less than 1 mil.
Ryan O'Marra (1.2mil) - Former first round pick has struggled this year. Started out in the ECHL and then moved up to the AHL. He hasn't really provided much offence this season but has been improving as the season grows longer. You have to include a guy of O'Marra's background in this discussion. He does have an expensive entry level contract because of his draft status. But the organization has plans for him to play in this exact role ala Mike Peca so his time could be now.

UFA Options w/ 07-08 salary:

Yanic Perrault (1.5 mil) - The perennial face off leader could provide some leadership in the young locker room as well as some defensive play. Does not provide much regarding offence.
Mike Peca (1.315) - On the down slide of his career he still has value. Provides a good amount of offence and can shut down opposing centers well. Not sure what his relationship is to this team after his last term here but I did read a quote where he complimented MacTavish for being intelligent.

There are many others cheaper than Stoll like Curtis Brown, Shean Donovan, Stephane Yelle, etc...

I understand he is young and could improve but his track record has never shown him to be more than a third line player. He parlayed his cup run season to decent contract and has not covered that bet. After drafting him he was groomed as the replacement to Todd Marchant and that is exactly what he is. Its time the Oilers stopped over paying their bottom six and used the money else where. If Stoll is offered any resemblance of a contract as an RFA you make the easy and smart decision and let him walk. Otherwise its a tougher decision, and one that should be thought out.

Pronger Stomp

So Pronger visibly stomps on Kesler and the NHL does not suspend him. While earlier in the year Simon does the exact same thing and gets 30 games. The only difference is that Ruutu went down like he had been shot and Kesler got up and skated away. Well that and Simon is a plugger and Pronger is a consistent Norris Trophy candidate. When you look at it Pronger is one of the most suspended players in NHL history. However, it seems that when a star does something wrong the NHL looks the other way. Or at least in this case that is what it seems like.

Pitkanen New Contract

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone and Joni Pitkanen is still an Edmonton Oiler it is time that the Oilers should start talking contract with the pending RFA. Pitkanen seems to be quite the enigma. After having a brilliant rookie and sophomore season, Joni has seen both his play and point production slip in the last two years. However, being a 23 year old puck moving defenseman still makes him a desirable asset to many teams in the NHL.

One thing that I learned while researching this blog is the clause that many teams use to protect their RFAs from offer sheets, simply file for arbitration. When a team or player files for arbitration it is regarded as though said player has the intent of signing a contract and is then unable to entertain offer sheets from other teams. This is what Joni and the Philadelphia Flyers did last summer. Now knowing this many people would question why don’t the Oilers just file for arbitration on July 1 and see what happens? Well under the new CBA a player can only be taken to arbitration once during their NHL life-span as a RFA. This means that even though the Oilers signed Joni to a contract, avoiding the arbitration process they can not file again this summer. So the next viable option is to figure out what Joni could be worth.

To figure out the worth of Mr. Pitkanen, since he is mainly known as an offensive defenseman, I will be comparing point averages and age to players that have recently signed contracts in the NHL (Thus I have not included players that are still on entry levels contacts).

First off, let’s set the bar. One of the best puck moving defensemen in the league is Sergei Zubov. Before he was injured Zubov had a 0.761 point per game average and is due to make 5.3 million dollars next year. So Joni should not get paid anywhere near the 5.3 million one of the best in the game demands.

Next compare Joni to a couple other young players

Player	Age	Point Per Game Average	Time on Ice
Ryan Whitney	24	0.559	23:12
Niklas Kronvall	26	0.521	20:50
Paul Martin	26	0.467	23:31
Joni Pitkanen	23	0.368	24:05
Brent Seabrook	22	0.355	21:09
Daniel Girardi	23	0.344	21:15
Fedor Tyutin	23	0.266	20:33

So as you can see Pitkanen is roughly the middle of the pack of these young studs for point per game average despite being the leader in time on ice. But, that is not the only factor we should look at offensively.

I also think that it should be noted that a true offensive defensemen will add significantly to your power play. However, Pitkanen’s PP numbers are atrocious. Comparing the same player’s power play points per 60 minutes looks something like this:

Player	PP P60
Sergei Zubov	4.13
Ryan Whitney	3.61
Daniel Girardi	3.23
Brent Seabrook	3.08
Paul Martin	3.04
Fedor Tyutin	2.0
Niklas Kronvall	1.93
Joni Pitkanen	1.6

As you can see Joni’s numbers place him at the bottom of this pack.

So let’s now look at the money issue

Player	Cap Hit
Ryan Whitney	4.00 mil / 5 yrs
Paul Martin	3.83 mil / 2 yrs
Brent Seabrook	3.50 mil / 3 yrs
Niklas Kronvall	3.00 mil / 5 yrs
Fedor Tyutin	2.85 mil / 4 yrs
Daniel Girardi	1.55 mil / 2 yrs
Joni Pitkanen	?

So now, basing solely on offensive numbers what should Joni be paid? Looking at the other contracts, the logical seems to be in the 2.85 – 4.0 million dollar range. However, it would be the length of the contract that determines where the actual cap hit lies. If the deal was for 3 years or less I would like to see the cap hit come out to roughly 3.25 million. This would be a good deal for Joni as it would pay fair market value and allow for him to prove himself for a possible bigger pay day when the contract expires. As well, with the new CBA in place it would mean that he would be a UFA (7 years in the NHL) at the age of 26. However, if the Oilers are able to lock him up for a 6 year term with the cap hit coming in around the 3.75 – 4.0 million dollar range I would say that the Oilers have come out on top possibly signing a franchise defensemen to a long term contract.

This is just my opinion and I guess we will all just have to sit back and watch what KLowe does.